2023-2024 NHL team preview: Edmonton Oilers

LAST SEASON

The Connor McDavid Show was bigger than ever at the box office last season as No. 97 erupted for 64 goals and 153 points en route to taking home the Hart, Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies and Ted Lindsay Award after one of the greatest individual seasons of all time. His star shined so brightly that Leon Draisaitl’s 128-point effort, which tied Nikita Kucherov’s 2018-19 campaign for second-most points in a season this century, was almost an afterthought.

They weren’t the only Oilers making history: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins broke out for 104 points of his own to make Edmonton the first team to feature three 100-point scorers since the 1995-96 Penguins (Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, and Ron Francis) as the team converted on an obscene 32.4 percent of power plays to set a new NHL record.

Despite Edmonton’s electric regular season, the Stanley Cup playoffs again proved scoring can only patch over so many issues. After handling a game Los Angeles Kings outfit in the first round, the Oilers ran into the eventual Stanley Cup champions for the second-straight year; the Vegas Golden Knights forced Edmonton to play at even strength, where they were outscored 25-30 throughout the postseason and sent McDavid and Co. home in six games.

While there is no shame in losing to the best team in hockey, Oilers fans have reason to worry that they missed their best chance at the Stanley Cup. With questionable depth, nonexistent cap space, and a dire prospect pool that will make it near-impossible to improve the team through trades, GM Ken Holland and coach Jay Woodcroft need to get creative to cash in on the primes of McDavid and Draisaitl.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Lane Pederson, C
Drake Caggiula, LW
Connor Brown, RW
Sam Gagner, C
Brandon Sutter, C (PTO)

Departures

Klim Kostin, C (Det)
Kailer Yamamoto, RW (Sea)
Nick Bjugstad, C (Ari)
Tyler Benson, LW (AHL)
Devin Shore, C (Sea)

OFFENSE

The Oilers’ offense in 2022-2023 was the most prolific in the NHL, as the team iced the second most potent attack of the 21st century on the strength of its record-setting power play. Zach Hyman will join McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins as the team’s fourth returning 83-or-more-point scorer after setting career highs in goals (36) and assists (47); that foursome was no less frightening during the playoffs as they combined for 60 points in 12 games. All this is to say Edmonton will not struggle to put the puck in the net in 2023-2024.

It takes more than four players to win a series, though, and hockey fans everywhere have bashed Edmonton’s lack of depth scoring almost as much as their longstanding goaltending woes. Defenseman Darnell Nurse finished fifth on the team in points last year with 43, a 40-point dropoff from Hyman, and fellow blueliners Tyson Barrie, who finished the season in Nashville, and Evan Bouchard were the only other Oilers to crack the 40-point mark. The next highest point total by a forward was 28, shared by Warren Foegele and Evander Kane, who played just 41 games. Holland exacerbated Edmonton’s top-heaviness by shipping Klim Kostin and Kailer Yamamoto, two of their younger relevant contributors, to the Detroit Red Wings to clear cap space.

Lucky for Holland and the Oilers, it would take little more than a clean bill of health to achieve a far more well-rounded attack next season. Kane missed most of the season after sustaining a grisly skate wound but remains a high-end power forward; he has scored 38 goals and 67 points in 84 games for Edmonton. Foegele played in just 67 games, while Ryan McLeod was similarly productive (11G, 23P) despite missing 25 contests through injury. Though none of Kane, Foegele, or McLeod impressed during the postseason; their 81 combined absences blew the Oiler’s reliance on its stars slightly out of proportion.

A healthy season from Kane would be enough to give Edmonton one of the most formidable top-sixes in the league, but he will not be the group’s only (semi) new addition next season. Winger Connor Brown’s early-season ACL injury for the Washington Capitals allowed Holland to count just $775,000 of his $4M salary against the cap. While Brown is no superstar, hovering around the 40-point range for most of his NHL career, his direct playstyle and high floor make him a candidate to break out alongside elite playmakers like Draisaitl and McDavid.

On the blueline, Bouchard will likely eclipse Nurse as the team’s highest-scoring defenseman. The 23-year-old scored an eye-popping 19 points in 21 games after stepping into Barrie’s role on the power play. His hot streak did not end with the regular season; Bouchard scored another 17 points in the Oilers’ 12 playoff games as the team cashed in on more than 46 percent of its man advantages. The former 10th-overall selection will look to take another step forward in 2023-24 during the first season of his freshly-inked contract extension.

DEFENSE

The Oilers will never be a shutdown team as long as they stylistically cater to their superhuman captain’s propensity for a wide-open brand of hockey that enables his end-to-end charges. McDavid is not a minus player by any stretch, but it is no secret that Edmonton’s defensive strategy since his arrival on the scene has been to score five goals and hope for the best. That could change in 2023-2024.

The Barrie trade garnered controversy as the Oilers moved the power-play specialist, along with prospect Reid Schaefer and a 2023 first-round pick, to acquire Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators last February. It was a steep price for an aging player and the sort of desperation move Holland has not been able to resist throughout his tenure in Edmonton. This time, it worked: the Oilers went 18-2-1 after the Swede’s introduction.

On Bouchard’s left, Ekholm was invincible, accruing a +28 rating in his 21 contests with Edmonton. His defensive assuredness transformed the way the Oilers played, and during their white-hot stretch run, only five teams conceded fewer goals. Edmonton finished with the 17th-ranked scoring defense overall, but an entire season of Ekholm and Bouchard will give them their first legitimate top pair in ages; they controlled over 59% of chances and 77% of goals that occurred while they were on the ice. The sample size may have been brief, but the results were so undeniable that Woodcroft leaned on the newly formed duo as his go-to pairing throughout the postseason.

They displaced Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci, a group Oilers fans are tepid toward as the new season approaches. Nurse and Ceci ate up difficult minutes against tough opposition but fell flat as Woodcroft’s shutdown pair. Ceci was not confident enough on the puck to cover for the more talented Nurse’s lapses in concentration as Jack Eichel ate the pair alive for the duration of the second round; they finished the postseason with a combined -7 rating. 

Nurse and Ceci were first and second among Oilers defencemen in both hits and blocks and were not shy about sacrificing their bodies, but have never shown to be the lockdown defensemen Woodcroft deploys them as. Nurse has yet to elevate a partner despite his hefty salary, and Ceci, though an honest player, will only continue to be exposed when matched up with the league’s best. 

Elsewhere, Vincent Desharnais and Philip Broberg will continue to compete to partner with reliable stay-at-home defenseman Brett Kulak. Desharnais would offer plenty of physicality on the third pair, but there is no denying former top-10 pick Broberg has the higher ceiling.

GOALTENDING

The Oilers got better in net, but that does not necessarily mean they were good. Mike Smith was often an unfair scapegoat in 2021-2022, and actually significantly outplayed the team’s other option in Mikko Koskinen throughout the regular season and playoffs. Still, Smith was thrust into a high-leverage role years removed from his best hockey, while Koskinen could never replicate his KHL successes in North America.

Holland decided to solve his goaltending problem once and for all by inking veteran Jack Campbell to a four-year, $20M contract last summer. Campbell had excelled as a spot-starter in L.A. and Toronto and was ready for his shot at being a true No. 1 goaltender. After Edmonton advanced to the Western Conference Final behind an aging Smith, it stood to reason that even Campbell’s career averages would get them over the hump.

That was not to be, as his impressive 21-9-4 record was betrayed by a career-worst GAA (3.41) and save percentage (.888). Woodcroft would end up leaning on Stuart Skinner as his starter, and the rookie did not disappoint, posting a comparatively excellent .913 SV% and 2.75 GAA. Skinner was by no means dominant, but he kept the high-scoring Oilers in games throughout the season as they finished second in a crowded Pacific Division. 

The duo would undergo a role reversal in the postseason, though, as opponents punched holes through Skinner, who was suddenly the embattled goaltender fans wanted to see on the bench as he struggled to a .883 save percentage. It did not help his cause that Campbell suddenly remembered how to play hockey, allowing just 1.01 GAA in his four relief appearances. Woodcroft never pulled the trigger on a change in the cage, but the play of his goaltending duo raised plenty of questions leading into 2023-24. Who is the real Skinner, and can Campbell push him for the job with a return to form?

COACHING

Woodcroft will always be under the microscope in Edmonton; coaching hockey’s best player comes with its drawbacks, namely that the Stanley Cup, the toughest trophy to win in sports, is the benchmark for success. Even without a Cup (or Final appearance), there is no denying that the Oilers have made strides under Woodcroft, who was at the helm for three of Connor McDavid’s four career playoff series wins. Losses to the eventual champions in both of his postseason campaigns help Woodcroft’s case, as it adds a level of ambiguity to just how close Edmonton has come to its first championship since 1990.

For now, there is ample evidence that Woodcroft is the right guy for the Oilers bench. McDavid and Draisaitl have never been this good in the scoring column, veterans Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman had career-best seasons, and Edmonton significantly tightened its defense after their second-year coach paired Ekholm with Bouchard. Woodcroft has great relationships with his players and has squeezed maximum offense out of a loaded roster. Whether the team improves at 5-on-5 will determine if his job is this secure again next summer.

ROOKIES

Edmonton saw mixed returns from its rookies last season, with Skinner’s improbable runner-up finish for the Calder Trophy offset by the inability of top prospects Broberg and center Dylan Holloway to establish themselves as full-time players in the NHL. All three players will seek to take their games to the next level in 2023-24, but will they be joined by any incoming rookies?

2021 first-rounder Xavier Borgault established himself in his first professional season for the AHL Bakersfield Condors (13G, 34P in 62GP), but the Oilers would not greatly benefit from shoehorning him into a bottom-six role so early in his career. Raphael Lavoie was even better for Bakersfield, scoring 25 goals, and, at 6-foot-4, is less of a risk of looking lost in limited NHL minutes; at worst, he can add some physicality to Woodcroft’s lineup.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Can Zach Hyman be even better? The narrative that Zach Hyman is a decent player whose greatest strength is his superstar teammates is dead in the water after his 37-goal explosion in 2022-2023. Hyman arrived as a legitimate top-line winger, and a statistical deep dive reveals that the 31-year-old has room left to improve. That is a mouthwatering proposition for Oilers fans and a scary one for everyone else.

Hyman scored 31.3% of his points on the man advantage compared to 50% for Draisaitl, 51% for McDavid, and 54.8% for Nugent-Hopkins. Hyman’s 57 even-strength points led Nugent-Hopkins by 10 and trailed Draisaitl by just seven. Hyman’s best hockey came during 5-on-5 play, an area of weakness for the rest of the team, and a sustainable 13 percent conversion rate on his shots makes it clear he was not just getting lucky. What happens if his power-play scoring catches up?

2. Will Darnell Nurse ever be elite? In August of 2021, Darnell Nurse got his big payday after four years and two contracts worth of bridge deals. He had been willing to give Edmonton a discounted rate and bet that his value would go up in the meantime, and Ken Holland proved him right with a monster eight-year, $74M contract.

If Holland thought Nurse was his answer as a minutes-eating top option after the 2020-21 season that saw him score 16 goals and finish seventh in Norris voting, the two seasons since have bitterly disappointed him. Nurse is a physical locker room leader who readily protects his teammates, but, between the whistles, he has yet to develop into more than a serviceable puck mover, above average on both ends of the ice but elite at neither. If he does not improve drastically, his $9.5M AAV will enter the conversation for the worst value in the NHL.

3. Why should the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs be any different? The Oilers are past the lean years of missing the playoffs altogether, or, perhaps more embarrassingly, getting swept by Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets, but they have yet to find the light at the end of the postseason tunnel. Edmonton could not afford to play wide-open hockey against a Colorado Avalanche team they quickly found out was even more dangerous, and, last postseason, they failed to keep up with the well-oiled machine that Kelly McCrimmon and Bruce Cassidy built in Las Vegas. The common theme? Edmonton could not rely on McDavid and Draisaitl’s heroics in the face of teams with similar star power and superior roster construction.

Edmonton still has its share of question marks as 2023-2024 approaches and Oilers fans would hate nothing more than to watch an imbalanced team score its way to another 100-point season just to be exposed during the spring. That act is getting old fast, and McDavid has options in the summer of 2026 if Holland cannot build a winner around him before then.

PREDICTION

The Oilers’ regular season will feel longer than any other team’s, save for perhaps Toronto, as their fans wait impatiently for another crack at the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They should get there with ease. The upstart Seattle Kraken are due for a hangover, while the Kings’ big swig for Pierre-Luc Dubois isn’t enough to vault them ahead of the Oilers. Those two teams, the Knights and perhaps a resurgent Calgary Flames are Edmonton’s only competition in the Pacific Division. If they do not make noise through at least three rounds of playoff hockey, Woodcroft’s seat will get hot as more than a million Albertans anxiously count the days remaining on McDavid’s contract.