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Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

3 Bold Predictions for Kings & Oilers Round 1 Series

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Michael Ostrower | Last updated 4/22/24

The Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings are set to match up in the opening round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Edmonton, who started the season as one of the worst teams in the Western Conference before making the coaching change from Jay Woodcroft to Kris Knoblauch, finished second in the Pacific Division with a 49-27-6 record. Los Angeles, who also made a midseason coaching change from Todd McLellan to interim Jim Hiller, were a playoff-likely team the entire way. In an unpredictable season for these two teams, this series could be one of the most entertaining of them all.

Dubois Scores 5 Goals, 10 Points

Heading into the season, Pierre-Luc Dubois was expected to dominate in his first season in Los Angeles. He was traded for young roster players Gabriel Vilardi and Alex Iafallo, as well as the 37th pick in the 2023 NHL Draft and Rasmus Kupari. However, Dubois scored just 16 times this season, going from a top-line role to playing in the bottom six.

Dubois had a stronger second half, looking more confident with the puck and re-earning a role in the top six. With the playoffs now beginning, he has heated up at the right time and is poised to take over. Despite scoring just 16 goals this season, he had 21.5 expected goals, according to Moneypuck. In the 2022-23 season, he had 29.9 expected goals, and 35.3 the season prior. He is an elite goal scorer and is due to break out.

The Kings have not had much playoff success in the past few seasons, so Dubois’ 38 career playoff games will provide him with the confidence to be aggressive and take a lead role. His talent and experience, as well as the heightened excitement of the playoffs, will put Dubois in a position to thrive. Scoring two to three goals is likely, but taking over the series is another. However, scoring five or more goals and 10 or more points in the series is a bold prediction, but not out of the question.

McDavid Scores 20 Points

Connor McDavid, the best player in the NHL and perhaps the most skilled player in NHL history, is an obvious name to say will find the scoresheet. However, saying he scores 20 points in a single playoff series is an out-of-this-world prediction. The all-time leading goal scorer in a single postseason is Wayne Gretzky with 47 points in 18 games during the 1985 Playoffs, finishing at a 2.61 point-per-game pace.

For McDavid to reach 20 points, a lot of things will need to go his way. The first is to see the series go the distance, having all seven games occur. This is not too crazy, as the Oilers went 3-1-0 versus Los Angeles this season and 5-3-0 over the past two seasons. The two sides are relatively evenly matched, so a long series is possible.

McDavid had seven points in four games this season against the Kings, finishing at a 1.75-point-per-game pace. He would need to step up his game by approximately one point per game to reach the 20-point mark, but that is possible. The Oilers have been great since Knoblauch took over as head coach, going 46-18-5. Frustration over the team’s lack of playoff success in recent seasons could be what is needed to get the team to make a deep playoff run, and to pair this with McDavid’s historic 100-assist season has created the perfect pathway to a 20-point playoff series for him. He has the ability to take over the game, so why not now?

Rittich Gets the Nod

This prediction is the least bold of the three but is still a bit bold considering the circumstances. Cam Talbot began the season as the Kings’ starter, and ended it that way, too. He is their presumptive starter, but it is not solidified. He has been streaky, going from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows. However, there is reason to believe he may not fare well against the Oilers.

Talbot, who is a former Oiler himself, lost both of his matchups with the Oilers this season. As well, Edmonton was one of the best even-strength teams this season, finishing fourth in goals with 221. Talbot finished the season with 1.9 goals saved above expected (GSAx) compared to David Rittich‘s 10.6 at even strength, according to Moneypuck. Rittich is also faster, a trait much needed to keep up with the Oilers’ crisp passes around the net. Most importantly, Talbot has struggled when the puck is around the net, and nobody scores more goals from the crease area than Edmonton’s Zach Hyman, so seeing Talbot struggle is well in the cards.

Rittich began the season in the American Hockey League for the Ontario Reign but has dominated since Phoenix Copley’s season-ending injury. He went 13-6-3 with a 2.15 goals-against average and .921 save percentage. He also finished with 13.8 GSAx, the eighth-highest mark of all goaltenders this season. There should be no reason to believe a poor performance from Talbot will not result in Rittich getting the nod considering the career season he is having.

With the series about to begin, it is a time of great excitement for all hockey fans. The 2024 Playoffs are comprised of the league’s top players and teams and is a time when the past meets the future. For the Oilers, this season is Cup or bust, with each year that McDavid does not win one feeling like a dud. For the Kings, their window is only beginning, but making a deep playoff run would go a long way for the young players in the core.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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