Blues’ Defense is Preventing Any True Rebuild

But if they are going to do that, Armstrong must directly face one of his biggest failings: the team’s nightmare on defense. Since captain Alex Pietrangelo departed for the Vegas Golden Knights in free agency, the blueline has been — and it’s only gotten worse. Now, the Blues are stuck with four underperforming players on expensive, long-term contracts: Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, and Nick Leddy.

In this article, we’ll take a look at just how bad the defense is, and then talk about each of the “big four” in order: whether they can still contribute, and what, if anything, the Blues can do to mitigate their contracts. But if you’re impatient, here’s the big takeaway: the Blues can’t effectively rebuild until they totally overhaul the defense.

Four Years of Bad… Then Worse…

It’s no secret that the Blues won the Stanley Cup in 2019, with a roster built primarily around the defense. So how could things have gone so wrong so quickly?

We already touched on the departure of Pietrangelo. The former captain was the cornerstone of the blueline for most of a decade, and without him, the Stanley Cup would have been unattainable. But that wasn’t the team’s only loss. Immediately after the Stanley Cup season, Joel Edmundson left in the trade that brought Faulk to St. Louis. Shortly thereafter, veterans Carl Gunnarsson and Jay Bouwmeester would retire. The Blues would sign Krug in free agency to replace the departing Pietrangelo, and, in the blink of an eye, the Blues had an almost entirely new defense.

Unfortunately for Armstrong, the “new” defense was not an “improved” defense. Very quickly, a team that had been known for its defense for a decade or more now had a defense that was below average, then outright bad. The chart below reflects the team’s trajectory over the past four seasons. They have gotten worse every season, including this one, where the goaltending of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer has done enough to obscure a defense that is still among the worst in the league.

Season	XGA (Rank)	HDCA (Rank)	XGF% (Rank)
2020-21	105.16 (17th)	43.89 (20th)	46.10 (25th)
2021-22	181.48 (29th)	775 (21st)	47.23 (22nd)
2022-23	193.88 (29th)	839 (26th)	44.77 (27th)
2023-24	181.82 (30th)	817 (30th)	44.14 (30th)

The Blues’ end-of-season (or current) rankings in three key defensive metrics at 5-on-5 over the last four seasons: expected goals against (XGA), high danger chances against (HDCA), and expected goals for percentage (XGF%). The numbers in parentheses reflect the team’s rank at that position.

There’s no escaping it: the Blues defense has become one of the worst units in the league. But to compound issues dramatically, they are also spending a ton for it. The Blues have the sixth-highest cap commitment to their defense. And, while Marco Scandella’s disastrous contract finally falls off the books this season, Armstrong is still committed for two more seasons to Leddy, three each to Faulk and Krug, and six to Parayko. So let’s take a look at each of those players and examine whether there’s any hope that they can be part of the rebuild, or whether they can potentially be moved.

Colton Parayko

Contract Remaining: Six more seasons at $6.5 Million AAV

One of the few remaining pieces that was around for the Stanley Cup, Parayko played a critical role in a shutdown pairing with Bouwmeester. But the towering right-handed defenseman has always been caught between roles: not truly a first-pairing cornerstone, but too good to be stuck deeper down the lineup. Unfortunately, when the Blues lost Pietrangelo, he was forced into a full-time first-pairing role, and he has looked overexposed ever since. Still, Armstrong gambled and gave him an eight-year contract extension. Last season, it looked to be a disaster, and even was discussed by some as one of the worst contracts in the league. But things might have turned around for the Alberta native.

This season, Parayko has been one of the few bright spots defensively and managed to get to third place in all-time games played by Blues defensemen. But his decent performance creates an opportunity for Armstrong. Defenders of Parayko’s size are still appealing to many “old school” general managers in the NHL. If there is even one who is interested in taking this contract off the Blues’ books, Armstrong must strike while the iron is hot. Parayko’s deal goes through the 2029-30 season. He cannot be a significant part of the Blues’ defense come then. But this offseason might provide one of the last opportunities for the front office to erase a mistake and move on from this lengthy extension.

Justin Faulk

Contract Remaining: Three more seasons at a $6.5 Million AAV

Armstrong’s decision to trade for Faulk ahead of the 2019-20 season was shocking and hard to explain. The move (and the subsequent extension) provided insurance should the team lose Pietragenlo in free agency. But the timing of the move (late in the offseason ahead of the defending Stanley Cup season) suggested desperation on the front office’s part.

In his now five seasons in St. Louis, Faulk has been inconsistent at best. In some seasons, he’s looked like a true number-one defenseman. In other seasons (including this one) he has looked almost unplayable. Faulk just turned 32 and is clearly on the back end of his career. Should he play two more seasons with the Blues, he’ll play his 1,000th career game in a St. Louis sweater. And he probably will. Faulk seems the most likely to remain in St. Louis. He can still play a role and is unlikely to garner much trade interest. Armstrong will probably just swallow his contract for the remaining three seasons.

Torey Krug

Contract Remaining: Three more seasons at a $6.5 Million AAV

Armstrong signed Krug when Pietrangelo was all but out the door, but even at the time, it was a surprising decision. Pietrangelo is a cornerstone, right-handed, two-way defenseman, and Krug is an undersized left-handed defenseman who excelled in the offensive zone. But with Faulk also on the roster, Armstrong believed he was assembling a new top four centered on his two new arrivals and Parayko.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked. Krug has never really gelled in St. Louis. He’s never looked like the elite offensive playmaker he was at times with the Boston Bruins. And we already know that the Blues tried to trade Krug this summer, in the deal that eventually brought his friend Kevin Hayes to town.

It’s hard to imagine that a layer that has invoked his no-trade clause to stay with the Blues once will play out the rest of his contract with the team. But can Armstrong find another taker? Notoriously, Armstrong has never bought out a player in his Blues’ tenure. And it seems like he might be committed to keeping it that way. But if there is anyone he should consider it for, it might be Krug. The savings would be substantial — the buyout would cost the Blues $2.33 million against the cap every season between now and 2029-30 — and for an unproductive and potentially unhappy player, it might be the only real option he has.

Nick Leddy

Contract Remaining: Two more seasons at a $4 million AAV

It never, ever made sense. Armstrong traded for Leddy at the 2022 Trade Deadline. In doing so, they sacrificed Jake Walman, a young defenseman who has blossomed with the Detroit Red Wings (and still costs them less per season than Leddy on his current contract extension). Adding Leddy to provide defensive depth heading into the postseason was questionable, but at least understandable. But extending him in the offseason was downright inexplicable — almost a carbon copy of the circumstances that led them to sign the Scandella extension they’ve regretted ever since.

Leddy has been a defensive black hole for much of his Blues’ tenure, which most analysts expected from the moment he signed his contract. And the Blues cannot commit to the transition, high-speed offense that he might be able to contribute to. With Leddy, the answer for Amrstrong is pretty simple: find a way to trade him. He needs to do with Leddy what he could never do with Scandella, and pay assets to a willing trade partner simply to get the contract off the roster. Leddy has been a good NHL player for much of his career, but he was never a fit in St. Louis, and his contract is a mistake best forgotten and moved on from as soon as possible.

Armstrong Has His Work Cut Out For Him… Or His Successor

So that’s that: an extensive look at the Blues’ defensive picture, and it isn’t pretty. Four veterans in the top four make a combined $23.5 million for at least the next two seasons, and the defense as a whole is one of the worst in the league. For those wondering if the Blues have reinforcements coming in their top 10 prospects, the short answer is, not really. They might have some decent pieces, but no one is close to ready to step up and shoulder the load at the NHL level, especially not in the top four.

Armstrong is now tasked with dealing with the mess that he created for himself. Blues owner Tom Stillman likely won’t have the appetite to miss the playoffs for many seasons in a row, which means Armstrong will have to get aggressive to fix the blueline. The team simply cannot be competitive again if they do not. And if Armstrong can’t find creative solutions, whether the ones suggested in this article or not, he might not have the job for a whole lot longer.