Breaking Down the Golden Knights’ Ideal Trade Deadline Strategy

There isn’t just one move that will make the Golden Knights Stanley Cup contenders. While Stone’s absence makes it clearer on what their priorities are and what type of player they will be seeking out, there are other areas of their game that have been concerning and can’t be solved with a trade.

Golden Knights’ Recent Struggles

In the opening 30 games of the season where the Golden Knights put together a 20-5-5 record, they had the second-best goals against average (GA/GP) in the league (2.40) and were eighth best in shots against (29.4). In their 32 games since then, they’ve allowed the eighth-most goals per-game (3.41), have given up the fifth-most shots per game (32.3), and their penalty kill is 25th in the league (73.4%).

The deeper analytics prove even further that the Golden Knights’ defense has been a huge problem. They’ve allowed high danger chances (HDCF/60) at a significantly higher rate in the second half of the season, dropping from fifth best in the league (10.3) in the opening 30 games to 25th (12.47) in the last 32.

While they’ve only played with their ideal defensive lineup for a small portion of the regular season, this recent nine game slump — where they’ve given 37 goals — has proven that it’s not just a personnel issue.

As much as the Golden Knights deserve criticism for their defensive efforts, they haven’t been getting the goaltending performances from Adin Hill and Logan Thompson they are accustomed to. Hill has lost four of his last five starts and is carrying an .883 save percentage (SV%) along with a 3.40 goals against average (GAA) in that stretch. After a strong start to the calendar year, Thompson has struggled with an .871 SV% with a 4.00 GAA in his last six games.

All of that doesn’t dismiss the fact that they are in desperate need of an additional offensive weapon. The Golden Knights were 10th in goals per game in their opening 30 (3.37) and have dropped to 17th since then (3.06). Their power play was already just average in their opening stretch of the season, operating at 22.7% (12th), and has fallen off a cliff since then, ranking 26th in the NHL since Dec. 12 (17.2%).

So what do the Golden Knights do? There’s not a clear answer. Every area of their game needs to improve, and while they should get the benefit of the doubt as the defending Stanley Cup champions that they can turn things around, General Manager Kelly McCrimmon could be more active at the deadline than he has been in previous seasons.

Golden Knights’ Trade Deadline Strategy

While they’d much rather have their captain in the lineup, Stone’s injury gives the Golden Knights $9.5 million in cap space to work with at the March 8 trade deadline. This gives them all sorts of room to try and acquire the high-end offensive players like Jake Guentzel of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tyler Toffoli of the New Jersey Devils, or Vladimir Tarasenko of the Ottawa Senators.

With the Penguins’ recent struggles, Guentzel has emerged as the biggest name in trade discussions over the past few weeks. With 52 points in 50 games, he’s been one of the Penguins’ best offensive producers this season and will give any team with postseason ambitions a huge boost to their top six.

He’s been out of the Penguins lineup since mid February dealing with an upper-body injury, and his timeline for return would be a huge indicator of whether the Golden Knights would pursue him, but Guentzel should be the Golden Knights’ top priority. On top of being an elite scorer in the regular season, he was a huge part of the Penguins’ 2017 Stanley Cup run, and has 58 points in 58-career playoff games.

Toffoli and Tarasenko both carry smaller cap hits than Guentzel and would play similar roles in the Golden Knights’ lineup, while also leaving them room to make additional moves. With the Devils remaining in the hunt for the playoffs it’s difficult to determine if they will be buying or selling at the deadline, but the Senators’ ask for Tarasenko’s would likely be the lowest of the three.

On a lacklustre Senators squad, Tarasenko has put up 17 goals and 41 points in 57 games. With a No-Trade Clause (NTC) on his contract, he’s going to need to be convinced that the team he’s going to has a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup. While the Golden Knights are struggling right now, there isn’t another team that has a better case to make when it comes to having a winning culture. Tarasenko should be the Golden Knights’ next option if a deal with Guentzel can’t be worked out.

When it comes to defensemen, there aren’t many candidates out there that could beat out any of the Golden Knights’ top six for a spot in the lineup. The Calgary Flames’ Noah Hanifin, Senators’ Jakob Chychrun, and Philadelphia Flyers’ Sean Walker — the three most high-profile defensemen on the trade block across the NHL — don’t provide anything the Golden Knights don’t already have in their organization.

With the way things have gone for them defensively, it’ll be tough to see the Golden Knights walk away without adding more depth to their back end. However, there are larger holes that they need to immediately fill on offense that will take precedence. It’s likely going to take some system changes and a new philosophy from head coach Bruce Cassidy for the Golden Knights to improve their defensive game and be considered Stanley Cup contenders once again.