Devils Paying the Price Without Dougie Hamilton

Once Hamilton was injured, teams discovered Hughes’ kryptonite: getting pressured with the puck. Opposing penalty-killers swiftly realized that he would cough up the puck far too easily when swarmed, leading to easy clears and shorthanded chances the other way. 

With Hamilton still out and no better option, Hughes continues to go through these struggles. Since Hamilton’s surgery, the man advantage has succeeded just 13.4% of the time. In comparison, the power play last season clicked at 21.9% – an 8.5% decrease which would extrapolate to nine or ten more goals (just since Dec. 1) that the Devils have missed out on – and that’s just the power play.

Hamilton Tough to Replace

At even strength, it’s been even more of a disaster. Last season, Hamilton had 22 goals and 74 points in 82 games (~0.90 P/G), along with a plus-23 rating. Hughes currently has eight goals and 31 points in 61 games (~0.51 P/G), coupled with a dreadful minus-21 rating. They also both led the team in ice time.

In total, that’s a 44-goal swing (at even strength) between the two of them. Yes, there are other factors involved, such as shoddy goaltending and team inconsistencies, but a swing that big is alarming. 

Strictly regarding opposing chances, Luke’s on-ice expected goals against (xGA) is 0.73 per game. Dougie’s is 0.72 (per Natural Stat Trick). There are typically 3.39 high-danger chances against (HDCA) per game with Hughes on the ice. With Hamilton, that figure drops to 3.03. The fact that Hughes is giving up *more* high-danger chances than Hamilton, who is far from a defensive juggernaut himself, shows just how much Hughes has struggled, and the offense hasn’t been able to make up for it.

One of Hamilton’s assets that the Devils have missed the most is his ability to shoot from anywhere. Last season, he generated 6.85 shot attempts per game – and in his 20 games this season, raised that to 7.50. Hughes has generated 4.85 per game, which is a huge drop-off. If Hughes tried to shoot the puck as much as Hamilton, though, it wouldn’t go nearly as well. Of every shot attempt Hamilton took, 48.9% got through to the net. As for Hughes, only 31% have made it through.

It’s unfair to hold Hughes to Hamilton’s standard – he is one of the best in the league at getting the puck through. But the reality is it’s an element that the Devils are missing a lot.

Part of the reason that Hamilton was a plus-22 at even strength (and a plus-60 in all situations) last season was his ability to keep the puck in the offensive end. Even though he was a defensive liability, he didn’t have to play defense all too much since the Devils dominated possession. Hughes has been unable to do the same.

Hamilton’s Clutch Play

Something no analytic can fully grasp is that Hamilton is a clutch player – it seemed that whenever the Devils needed someone to step up last season, Hamilton was that guy.

His seven game-winning goals last season was second to Nico Hischier, who had nine. Hughes has just one game-winner this season. 

One game from last season stands out – a contest against the Seattle Kraken in February with Jack Hughes out of the lineup. Hamilton stepped up with two power-play goals, both slapshots from the point. The Devils tacked on an empty-netter for a 3-1 victory. Hughes has been unable to take over a game like that, and understandably so. He’s 20. Virtually nobody that young can. 

Devils Looking Ahead

Many people, myself included, have been critical of Hamilton’s defense (or lack thereof) when healthy. But there’s no denying that he was one of the most clutch players in the NHL last season and earlier on this season. 

Hughes has not been able to perform anywhere near Hamilton’s level offensively, and the Devils are hurting as a result. However, the extra ice time and deployment against tough competition will do wonders for Hughes and the team’s future. If he pans out to be a stud in the NHL, we can chalk this up to an expensive lesson.

While it looks unlikely that Hamilton will return this season, hopefully, he’ll be back to full health in 2024-25. If he’s able to consistently drive offense from the back end, just like he’s done throughout his career, the Devils will be much better as a result.