Free-agent profile for Tomas Tatar

But with cap space at an absolute premium, those types of bidding wars became reserved for only the cream-of-the-crop free agents.

That leaves players such as Tatar unable to secure the pricey contracts lasting a half-decade or longer which free agents in earlier cycles (such as James Neal or Andrew Ladd) were able to receive.

In his most recent trip to free agency, Tatar ended up signing a two-year, $4.5M AAV contract with a rebuilding New Jersey Devils team.

It wasn’t exactly an unfair yearly price tag for Tatar’s services, but it also wasn’t the career-defining cash-in with a contending club that many free agents in earlier cycles had been able to land.

Fast forward two years, Tatar has once again hit free agency and he remains unsigned more than two weeks after the market opened. Next to Vladimir Tarasenko, he’s one of the few goal scorers and proven NHL commodities left on the market – though there are certain elements of his profile that could give contending teams pause.

Perhaps the most significant red flag in Tatar’s profile is that for how consistent his regular-season production has been, a lack of productivity in the playoffs has been similarly consistent. Tatar only scored one goal in 12 playoff games for the Devils, sat as a healthy scratch for most of the Montreal Canadiens’ 2021 Stanley Cup Final run and has just 13 points in 52 career playoff games.

Set to turn 33 in December, it’s not exactly likely that the inability to contribute in the playoffs – something that has been consistent throughout his career – will end up changing. So while Tatar is still searching for his first Stanley Cup, he might be a better fit for a team looking to escape its rebuild with the goal of reaching the playoffs, rather than a club with true Stanley Cup aspirations.

Stats

2022-23: 82 GP, 20-28-48, +41 rating, 30 PIMs, 153 shots on goal, 60.2% CF, 15:07 ATOI
Career: 783 GP, 211-244-455, +42 rating, 276 PIMs, 1,636 shots on goal, 60.6% CF, 15:29 ATOI

Potential suitors

Tatar is an interesting case because what sort of contending team wouldn’t jump at the chance to add a consistent 20-25 goal, 45-50 point scorer to its lineup? But as previously mentioned, the pattern Tatar has clearly established throughout his career of struggling mightily to produce in the postseason should give many contending teams pause.

At this point, combining the realities of Tatar’s profile with the realities of the league-wide financial picture, his most optimal suitors are franchises more concerned with escaping a rebuild and reaching the postseason, rather than the ones worried about immediately competing for the Stanley Cup.

A team such as the Buffalo Sabres, which owns the NHL’s longest playoff drought, could be a good fit. While they already boast quite a bit of talent along the wings, Jack Quinn recently underwent surgery to repair an Achilles injury and is expected to miss the start of the 2023-24 season. The Sabres currently projected to have around $6.7M in cap space, so fitting Tatar on a one-year contract would be no issue.

Not only would signing Tatar insulate them against any further health complications in their forward corps, it would also protect their playoff chances in the case a player such as J.J. Peterka hits a sophomore slump.

Another team that could fit is the Sabres’ Atlantic Division rival, the Ottawa Senators. They, too, have the cap space to fit a Tatar contract. And similar to Buffalo they are desperate to return to the playoffs after a long absence.

Ottawa just dealt Alex DeBrincat away and while they received Dominik Kubalik in return, Tatar would be a powerful addition to their third line. He could greatly help the development of a young winger such as Ridly Greig, who could end up playing on Tatar’s line.

Projected Contract

At this point, it seems unlikely Tatar’s next deal will match the two-year, $4.5M AAV pact he signed in his last trip to free agency. A one-year deal seems the most likely outcome and the ultimate price could very well depend on what Tarasenko. Should Tarasenko end up receiving under $5M, for example, Tatar’s argument to receive a guarantee around that number weakens.

Tatar could very well end up earning a one-year deal at a mid-range AAV, but seeing as players such as Blake Wheeler have taken contracts below even $1M overall, attempting to project what Tatar will earn on his next deal is something of a guessing game. The most important thing to know, then, is that at this stage of the market, the race to secure Tatar’s services is unlikely to be extremely competitive and pricey.