Hart Trophy favorites and dark horses

It is prediction time as the 2022-23 NHL regular season launches. Who are the best bets to win the Hart Trophy as league MVP? On Friday’s edition of Daily Faceoff Live, Frank Seravalli and Matt Larkin discussed the favorites and sleepers to win it.

FRANK SERAVALLI: Let’s talk awards, because you and I are awards voters, and it is always interesting to see who might be on our pre-season radar. It is always hard to make a pick if you try to go a little bit outside the box.

We will start with the Hart Trophy. The chalk is of course Connor McDavid, and you think back to last season and just the postseason he had, it is hard not to think that he would pick up right where he left off. Auston Matthews, the 2022 Hart winner, and yet Connor McDavid set a career high in goals and points and did not win the Hart. I do not know if that is because there was a sort of 20-game swoon, there was an infatuation in terms of Auston Matthews and getting to that 60 goal mark, or is it just voter fatigue. Who you got for the Hart this year?

MATT LARKIN: I think last year with Matthews, his defensive play was the under-the-radar thing that came into play. But I do think McDavid is the favorite. The pendulum tends to swing back and forth, and I think the narrative is going to go back toward ‘best player’ because of that amazing playoff run. It is in voters’ minds, it is a subjective award, so of course he is the favorite.

But I am looking closely, as I know you are too Frank, at Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild. This is a superstar who is capable, he did it last year, of putting up more than 100 points. But he also checks the box if you are an award purist. If you like the definition, “most valuable to his team,” you could make a case that Kaprizov has a lot less support in Minnesota. He carries that team, he drives the play. So that is a hybrid to me: he is a superstar, he is going to be near the top of the league scoring chart, but he is also going to be very valuable if you are a purist voter.

SERAVALLI: Well yeah, if you are a purist, it is hard to argue given the talent that surrounds these other guys, including Matthews with Marner and McDavid with Draisaitl, that Kaprizov has to do more with less. And so, by definition, frankly, you could include some goalies in this category every year because goalies are so valuable in team success. They hardly ever make the cut because of that. But in this case with Kaprizov, he is asked to do so much, that when you see someone put up 108-point season, nearly touch 50 goals and not have that help around him, he may be literally the most valuable player in the league. And that’s what I always wrestle with as a voter, right?

LARKIN: It is so true. And to me, if we are looking at someone who has a similar profile, it is Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils. He is going to be someone, we have talked about it, he could break through to be a 100-point scorer. But also, the Devils are going to go as he goes. If they break through to be a playoff team, we might see something similar to Taylor Hall in 2017-18 in which one guy is willing a team to get there. And I know there is some support, the Devils are getting better, they are improving around Hughes, but this is his team. If they go all the way back to the playoffs this year, it is going to be because he has a monster season, and that will make him a Hart Trophy candidate.

SERAVALLI: It would be a big jump for the Devils to get back into the playoffs given the points they’d have to close from last season. One of my bold predictions was that Jack Hughes will get to the 100-point mark, but maybe it’s really not that bold if you take out the time that he missed due to injury and you look just purely on pace, he was at 93 points last season. So, certainly a huge step forward for Jack Hughes and earning that contract which kicks in this year: 8 x 8 equals $64 million.

You can watch the full episode here…