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Jets 2022-23 Player Report Cards: Nikolaj Ehlers

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Connor Hrabchak | Last updated 6/19/23

The Winnipeg Jets had an exceedingly up-and-down 2022-23 season. They had a strong first half, suffered a prolonged slide in the second half, recovered from it just in time to squeak into the playoffs, then were quickly dispatched in the first round by the Vegas Golden Knights.

In this series, we’ll take a look back on the season, player by player, and grade their individual performances with an eye toward their future with the team.

Nikolaj Ehlers‘ season started with him missing time after undergoing sports hernia surgery. Upon his return he showed flashes of his usual self, but at times struggled to put together a stretch of good games.

Nikolaj Ehlers’ Injuries Disrupted Rhythm

Whether it was the injury early on in the season or the one he battled back from in order to play in Game 5 of the Jets’ first-round series against the Edmonton Oilers, Ehlers spent a lot of time knocking off the rust this season, which prevented him from establishing a rhythm. However, when he was in the lineup, he posted an impressive 12 goals and 38 points in 45 games.

Some fans began to label Ehlers as injury-prone, which is recency bias at its finest. Does he miss a few games every season? Yes, but this was by far the most time he’s missed in a single campaign. He had never missed more than 20 games in a season before this one. He missed 37 this season to go along with four playoff games. However, if he can stay healthy next season, he should be his usual point-producing, shot-metric-dominating self.

On April 11, Ehlers was on the wrong end of a reverse hit from Minnesota Wild forward Ryan Hartman, who was suspended for one regular-season game. Ehlers missed time in the postseason, while Hartman went on to score a few key goals against the Dallas Stars in their first-round series.

Nikolaj Ehlers	2021-22	2022-23
Corsi %	54.24	56.58
Expected goals %	52.73	54.94
High Danger Chance %	48.44	56.02

Despite the injuries, Ehlers was still a force when he was in the lineup. Per Natural Stat Trick, not only did he improve in shot metrics, but he was able to control most shots and chances at even strength. He has always been an analytical darling, but his ability to improve on these numbers while clearly out of rhythm was impressive.

Ehlers Projects as Clear of a Potential Trade

Ehlers’ $6 million contract doesn’t expire until 2025-26, which is an asset for the organization, since Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele, and Brenden Dillon, among others, all have their contracts expiring at the end of next season.

Yes, Ehlers was unable to suit up for roughly half of the season, but he showed that when he is in the lineup he can still produce at a high level, despite undergoing surgery and recovering in the middle of the season. He has found chemistry up and down the lineup, forming one of the Jets’ best line combinations with Vladislav Namestnikov and Blake Wheeler last season, two players who struggled without him.

He is in his prime at 27 years old, so if the Jets are avoiding a rebuild, which has been reported by Elliotte Freidman, then there is no reason to move on from him.

That brings us to his final grade. As has been said many times, Ehlers was one of the better forwards in the Jets’ top six this season. However, he was unable to stay healthy, which knocks his grade down a few tiers. As the saying goes, “The best ability is availability,” and he was only available for half of the season.

Given his contribution in the 45 games played, a B grade seems fair. Had he played 65+ games, his grade would likely rise to the B+/A- range. Next season, hopefully, he contribute at a similar level offensively over a full 82-game schedule.