Kings’ Kopitar Could Be Selke Finalist

Kopitar’s excellent defensive play was recognized with the Selke Trophy twice, in the 2015-16 and 2017-18 seasons. Those seasons actually rank in the middle of the pack in terms of his underlying numbers ; his possession stats really peaked in the early 2010s. The 2017-18 season was his best offensive season, with 92 points, and that put him over the top to win the award that season. This has been a theme for winners lately. Guys like Sean Couturier and Ryan O’Reilly won it after being solid defensively for years, and then having the offensive breakout to get mainstream recognition. There is one candidate that follows that path this season, and Kopitar will have some stiff competition across the board.

2022-23 Selke Trophy Race

The leader in the clubhouse for the Selke Trophy this season is likely Patrice Bergeron. Last season, he won it for a record fifth time. It’s going to be tough for anyone to unseat him this season. The Boston Bruins are one of the best regular season teams we’ve ever seen, and also the best defensive team in the league. Bergeron isn’t having some kind of crazy offensive season, but he has the best relative Corsi among all forwards with at least 400 minutes played. He also has the third-best faceoff percentage in the league.

Behind Bergeron, there are a few players who have a case. Nico Hischier of the New Jersey Devils would be the player that is having his best offensive season to date, after being solid defensively for his entire NHL career. He has driven expected goals at the second-best relative rate of his career this season, so his game is getting better at both ends of the ice. With the Devils having a surprisingly great season, the voters may give Hischier some love to give them some recognition in the postseason awards.

Another possible candidate could be Mitch Marner. He leads all forwards in takeaways and is key a part of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ penalty kill. One key element that could work against him is that he plays wing. A winger has not won the award since Jere Lehtinen in 2003. Marner’s possession numbers are also not too spectacular, so he probably will not get the votes needed to win. There is a world where he could get some to be a finalist, however.

Kopitar probably can’t compete with Bergeron, as it appears likely that the trophy is his to lose. There is a case for the Kings’ captain to be a finalist, as no other candidate is clearly above him. He is second among players who will get serious consideration in faceoff percentage, behind Bergeron. He has also been good at keeping opponents from getting a lot of dangerous scoring opportunities, as you can see in the image below.

This map shows that Kopitar has been good at keeping the puck away from the front of his net. His minus-7.4 percent expected goals against rates favorably to most of the candidates mentioned above. Keep in mind that being negative is good in this case because it means you are allowing fewer expected goals when you are on the ice than when you are off. Hischier’s expected goals against is minus-5.6 percent using this same metric. Marner’s is minus-7.8 percent, which is good, but not the spectacular season needed for a winger to get serious consideration.

Kopitar Might Get Enough Votes to Finish Top 3

With the season Bergeron is having, he will probably win the award. He is well-liked among the media and the Bruins are having a historic season. Behind him, it’s pretty wide open. Kopitar could get credit for the Kings having a great season, especially if they are able to win the Pacific Division. He is still a very solid defensive center despite his advanced age, and has the reputation that might see him get enough votes to be a finalist.