Likeliest Canadiens Forwards on the Move After Pearson Trade

At his peak, the still-31-year-old Pearson scored 45 points in 69 games with the Vancouver Canucks (2019-20). So, assuming  Pearson’s injury troubles are behind him and he’s good to go, you’re looking at someone who, given the proper deployment, can realistically put score at a 0.5 point-per-game pace.

Furthermore, Pearson’s a pending unrestricted free agent who can potentially be flipped by the trade deadline, with the Jeff Petry trade set to provide even further value in such an instance. The problem is, Pearson would have to be played until the deadline to build up his value, meaning he likely won’t be flipped right away and he’ll be taking up a roster spot. That means in turn one less spot for a younger player, which is ironically one of the problems the Petry trade solved, Mike Hoffman going the other way.

Christian Dvorak’s officially out for the first month of the season, which should help on that front (just not Dvorak… or the Canadiens if they had hoped to trade him). Even taking Dvorak out of the equation, with Pearson now in, there are 14 forwards with relative claims on roster spots (excluding Lias Andersson and Sean Farrell). Assuming the Canadiens go with 13, which ones are potentially facing imminent trades out of town or being unfairly cut in training camp? Here are the five likeliest:

5) Tanner Pearson

No one would blame Hughes if he were to flip Pearson right away. After all, it’s not like anyone’s grown attached to the guy and, even if Hughes gets only a late-round pick, it would be easy to look at it through the lens of having gotten DeSmith for a third and an additional pick. That’s a huge win.

You need only to look to DeSmith himself. He serves as a case study in flipping an asset after having acquired them. Similarly, DeSmith had the skill to play for the Canadiens and was arguably above backup Jake Allen on the depth chart on skill alone, just like Pearson is a top-six forward on paper. DeSmith just didn’t fit into the vision Hughes has for the team. As a pending UFA, Pearson probably doesn’t either.

However, if you compare Pearson to Sean Monahan? A different vision unfolds. Remember, the Canadiens acquired the latter with low expectations in terms of how the much-maligned forward would pan out. The first-round pick the Habs got in the Monahan deal was instead seen as its centerpiece. A few months into last season, Monahan had rebuilt his reputation and was seen as potentially earning the Habs another first-round pick come the trade deadline (had he not gotten injured).

No one’s suggesting Pearson owns that kind of value when healthy. However, he can realistically fetch a decent haul… definitely more of one a few months into 2023-24 than now. While there is probably some temptation to move him right away, there might not be an opportunity to. Even if there is, waiting is the wiser approach.

4) Joel Armia

If life were fair, the Canadiens would be a perfect meritocracy, in which case Joel Armia would either be buried or traded out of town. However, as he owns one of the worst contracts on the team, it’s unlikely the Canadiens pay him as much as he’s owed to simply play in the American Hockey League. It’s maybe more unlikely the Canadiens find a taker on the trade front.

To be fair, Armia isn’t a bad player and has carved out a niche as a presence on the penalty kill, who can chip in the odd point. Even though he scored just 14 all of last season, he did end 2022-23 on a high note, with 11 of those points coming in his last 17 games.

So, the hope may be that Armia rediscovers his end-of-season form. That way he’d either help propel the team into competition for a playoff spot or prompt an earlier-than-expected trade, with his contract only expiring in 2025. Either way, he’s likely to stay well past training camp this season.

3) Juraj Slafkovsky

Whether or not Juraj Slafkovsky is ready for the NHL, at this point it seems like a foregone conclusion he’s staying with the Canadiens out of training camp. After he spent all of 2022-23 with the Habs (until a season-ending injury), it would take him struggling to an extraordinary level for the team to so much as consider demoting the first-overall pick from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.

For that to happen though, Slafkovsky would have to, well, struggle to an extraordinary level in the NHL. So, he’s effectively a lock to make the Canadiens out of training camp, even if only so management can see what he’s made of as a sophomore, with one NHL season now under his belt.

As one of the two waiver-exempt Habs forwards in line to compete for roster spots, Slafkovsky is theoretically an easy mark to cut, especially after his rookie season went the way it did (10 points). In practice though, the Canadiens would be hard-pressed to do what many might see as unthinkable. The development of a top prospect like Slafkovsky is obviously delicate. The Habs didn’t do themselves or him any favours giving him as little ice time as they did last season. As long as they’re committed to giving him more opportunities to succeed this time around, there’s little issue keeping him where he is.

2) Rafael Harvey-Pinard

All due respect to rookie Emil Heineman, the other waiver-exempt forward in question is Rafael Harvey-Pinard. While the second-year forward proved himself in a top-six role beside Nick Suzuki last season, he’s projected to drop down the lineup in 2023-24, albeit through little fault of his own.

The fact is Harvey-Pinard got the opportunity he did because of the team’s injury situation. To his credit, he ran with the ball to the tune of a ninth-ranked 14 goals among rookies across the league (in just 34 games). However, because his versatile playing style projects as being effective wherever he’s played, it makes sense to drop him lower down the lineup in favor of other, more established offensive options.

In that same vein, especially because of Harvey-Pinard’s waiver situation, there’s at least a school of thought where he’s relatively expendable. However, that he can seamlessly move up and down the lineup should objectively be a reason to keep him up in the NHL. On top of that, that he’s now under a one-way contract, presumably signed as a reward for his contributions last season, should save him.

1) Jesse Ylonen

In contrast to Harvey-Pinard, Jesse Ylonen got re-signed to a two-way deal, making him more expendable on paper… probably in practice looking a few weeks into the future. True, Ylonen would have to go through waivers, and that could be seen as a point in his favor when it comes time to make cuts in training camp. However, he just hasn’t demonstrated the same top-six upside as the former. So, there is logically some form of a meritocracy taking place.

To his credit, Ylonen, who would otherwise be destined for a bottom-six role, did outproduce Armia. So, he is more of a cost-effective, play-driving checking-line option up front, were a trade involving Armia to suddenly materialize (as opposed to the Habs having to incur cap penalties by burying him instead). However, in a world where the Habs presumably had to take on Pearson’s deal simply to unload DeSmith, does anyone see that as remotely likely? They shouldn’t.

It’s a sad situation in that the aforementioned Petry trade seemed to open the door for Ylonen, who’s for all intents and purposes earned a shot at staying in the NHL. Now, it’s seemingly slammed shut. While some may see it as indictment of the Pearson acquisition, it’s also a testament to the depth the Canadiens now have up front. A few seasons ago, had someone suggested simply getting rid of a newly acquired Pearson for the sake of just keeping a roster spot open, they’d have been subject to ridicule. No one’s laughing now at the tough decision Habs management now faces, though.