Maple Leafs to officially sign William Nylander to eight-year extension

Nylander, 27, is now the recipient of the largest total value contract in the Maple Leafs’ 100-plus-year history at $92M. He will be 36 years old when his mega-deal expires in 2032, making him eligible for unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career as his prime years are assumedly winding down.

This is a landmark deal for a player who’s emerged as undoubtedly their second-most important forward this season. While superstar first-line center Auston Matthews has stolen the show with his 30 goals in just 36 games, Nylander has broken the bank in terms of points. His 21 goals and 33 assists give him 54 points on the year in 37 games, putting him on pace for 120 – shattering last season’s career-high mark of 87.

Nylander’s been viewed as a bona fide top-six winger since he finished sixth place in Calder Trophy voting in 2016-17. However, there have always been external questions surrounding the compete and consistency level of the 2014 eighth-overall pick. Most of those have been quieted in the past 12 months, with Nylander continuing to provide excellent postseason play (despite Toronto’s abbreviated playoff runs), adding in excellent possession metrics and now proving himself as a yearly threat for 40-plus goals.

The leading thought among public opinion will likely be that new GM Brad Treliving shoehorned himself by not signing Nylander to a deal last summer when discussions were reportedly in the $9M-$10M AAV range. However, Friedman countered that on this morning’s edition of the "32 Thoughts" podcast. He believes that Nylander’s camp has been holding steadfast to a higher number since negotiations began last July, and while he couldn’t confirm that an $11.5M AAV on an eight-year deal was Nylander’s initial ask, it was close enough to get the deal done once the Leafs arrived at that number.

It’s unlikely the Leafs were comfortable with a $1.5M jump in value per season based on a 30-game hot streak. Advanced metrics show this run of play from Nylander could very well be sustainable over the first few seasons of the deal, however, making the team’s third $11M+ cap hit on the books next season easier to swallow.

For one, he’s shooting the puck more – likely due to an uptick in ice time this season of around a minute and a half. He’s now shown he’s able to weather more than 20 minutes per game on a routine basis, something the Leafs will rely on him to do as their bevy of high-paying contracts restricts their ability to add depth on offense. Thus, despite his career-high 47-goal pace, Nylander is shooting at a percentage right around his career average (12.9% this season compared to his 12.3% average), and at a shooting percentage lower than three out of the last four seasons. His possession numbers remain quite strong, too, including a 53.4% Corsi share and a 4% relative Corsi share at even strength this year. Put simply, his play this season warrants the box-score numbers he’s produced.

That makes it an incredibly difficult decision to consider parting with Nylander, who’s developed into a core player for Toronto in every sense of the word. He’ll have spent a decade already in the organization next summer, and he’s managed to withstand, at times, a great deal of public criticism from local media and respond with an 18-month span that’s solidified him as a top-five right wing in the league. By keeping him around long-term, the Maple Leafs will get to reap the rewards of their patience.

Whether or not the team’s current construction under the salary cap can lead to a Stanley Cup win is the most pressing question, though, a cry that will become louder with now over 50% of next season’s salary cap devoted to Nylander, Matthews, Mitch Marner and captain John Tavares. In hindsight, that may be a more important metric in assessing this deal’s value rather than Nylander’s individual production over the next eight seasons.

For now, Nylander will be one of the six highest-paid players in the league next season in terms of AAV behind Matthews ($13.25M), Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6M), Oilers superstar Connor McDavid ($12.5M), Rangers winger Artemi Panarin ($11.64M), and Penguins blueliner Erik Karlsson ($11.5M). It’s quite lofty company for Nylander at the beginning of the contract, but his cap hit’s place in those standings will continuously drop as more eight-figure deals get inked with the impending sharp rise of the salary cap’s Upper Limit.

In signing this deal, the Maple Leafs also take the top pending unrestricted free agent of the 2024 class off the board. That title now goes to a group of first-line talents in the Eastern Conference – Penguins first-line mainstay Jake Guentzel, Lightning captain Steven Stamkos, and, amidst a breakout season on pace for 59 goals and 105 points, Panthers winger Sam Reinhart.

Nylander’s full no-movement clause will protect him from any trades, waiver placements, or future expansion drafts over the life of the deal unless he consents. It does not, however, prohibit Toronto from buying out his contract if the last seasons of the deal age poorly.