NHL best bets: Odds, picks, predictions for late games on Saturday 4/13

Bruins vs. Penguins

Saturday, April 13, 8 p.m. ET, ABC | ESPN+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

It's hard to believe, but the Penguins control their own destiny in the playoff race entering Saturday's action — they had percentage chance below 1%, according to most most models, in March. Pittsburgh is in the midst of a 7-0-3 tear, including a wild 6-5 overtime win over Detroit on Thursday in arguably the NHL's most exciting game of the year.

But are the Penguins really worthy of being only +102 underdogs against a much more well-rounded Bruins side? It feels like the market is buying too much into Pittsburgh too much for my liking. And while the game means more for the Penguins, don't expect the Bruins to lay down in a perfect tune-up contest before the postseason.

Part of the reason why Boston is being undervalued is because its underlying results have suffered during a nightmare scheduling patch. Over the last 19 games, Bruins opponents have had an average ranking of 12.7 in the standings. In their last seven matchups, they have faced Florida (twice), Carolina (twice), Tampa Bay and Nashville. The only easy matchup was a game in Washington.

The Bruins need to command respect for their elite defensive play and having two of the league's best goaltenders. Yes, they lack a true No. 1 center. They have strengths to counteract that though, and that flaw wouldn't be getting as much as air time as it has lately if they hadn't played such dominant teams every night.

The Penguins are at the opposite end of the spectrum, currently getting more credit than they deserve. Their bottom six is still a weakness compared to a team like Boston, and their defensive core suffers a lot of breakdowns in the worst areas of the ice.

Alex Nedeljkovic is in the midst of the best run of his season, but he was exposed for five goals against in Thursday's win over Detroit. If he comes down to earth, the Penguins are going to look far more mortal, and it's obvious that Jeremy Swayman still offers the Bruins a big edge in goal.

The Bruins enter on ideal rest, which should mitigate the Penguins' home ice advantage. Boston has displayed a more complete game all season long, and it feels like Pittsburgh's recent surge is being overvalued.

Best Bet: Bruins Moneyline -122 (Play to -130)

Ducks vs. Kings

Saturday, April 13, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

The Kings suffered a surprising 3-1 loss to the Ducks on Tuesday night, but Los Angeles should be well situated to bounce back on Saturday. That game seemed to be more of an off-night for the Kings more than anything else — the Ducks caught them off guard with two quick goals in the third to steal a victory.

Los Angeles features a well-balanced top nine that is capable of coming in waves with an aggressive forecheck. The Kings officially secured a playoff berth last time out with a commanding 4-1 win over Calgary, and we should expect a similar score tonight.

The Ducks' defensive core has consistently had a tough time breaking out of their defensive zone, which has led to flurries of chances for their opponents. This will be a tough matchup to hide that flaw.

I've speculated that Anaheim's form would improve slightly with players like Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson back in the lineup, which was partly why I ended up betting them versus Calgary on Friday. The main reason I liked the Ducks in that game was because of how ideal of a spot it was, hosting a horrid Flames side playing a back-to-back with their backup goaltender.

What it ended up being was another illustration of how completely horrible the Ducks' defensive play really is. They have played t0 a 42.85% expected goal share over the last 10 games, and allowed 3.60 goals against per game over that span.

The Kings are a gigantic favorite at -375 to win, which is the most they have been favored all season. Still, I believe they will cover the puck line (-1.5) more often than the current price of -135 suggests.

Anything better than -140 is worthy of a bet on the Kings to win by two or more.

Best Bet: Kings -1.5 (-135; Play to -140)