No rust for Bryan Rust: Penguins forward starring since return from injury

Bryan Rust – the Pittsburgh Penguins' top pending UFA forward – is on fire.

In three games back after missing more than a month of NHL action due to a lower-body injury, the native of Pontiac, Mich., has seven goals and four assists.

So what’s behind his offensive outburst? And will the Penguins be able to keep him?

It helps that Rust is skating on Pittsburgh’s top line alongside Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. But his skill can stand on its own. He’s previously been a point-a-game player in the NHL.

Rust is intriguing because he doesn’t really have a skill that defines him. He just does everything extremely well – and efficiently. He can skate. His shot is accurate. He can protect the puck and make plays through traffic.

But what I notice most in Rust’s game is confidence. Here’s a player that spent more than a month on the shelf with an injury, who comes right back into the Penguins lineup without missing a beat.

Seriously. Eleven points in three games. Seven goals. I don’t care who Pittsburgh’s opponents have been. That’s incredible. And Rust has scored in a variety of ways.

While there’s diversity in Rust’s seven goals, there’s one constant: the puck is never on his blade for more than a second.

When I watch Rust play, I see a lot of Dallas Stars forward Joe Pavelski in his game. Smart, smooth, good in tight with the puck – they’re similar players. Maybe it’s that they’re both right-handed Americans. Or that they have similar beards. But they both carry a quiet assertiveness.

I mentioned confidence earlier. And I think it’s most apparent when watching some of Rust’s assists over the last three games since he returned to the Penguins lineup.

Obviously, racking up so many points in a short time frame isn’t sustainable for Rust – or anyone for that matter. But his offensive outburst is further evidence that the Penguins have a dilemma on their hands.

Bryan Rust is currently a bargain for the Penguins. He’s making $3.5 million dollars this season in the fourth – and final – year of his contract.

During the 2019-20 season, Rust scored 27 goals in 55 games. Last year he scored 22 times in 56 games. I think Rust could score 35 (or more) over the course of a full 82-game schedule. That’s worth a lot of money.

If Rust is allowed to hit the open market, I could easily see him fetching somewhere around $6 million per year. He’s 29 years old, so length of contract could be tricky. But first-line right-wingers capable of the Rust’s offensive production are in short supply around the NHL.

So where does this leave the Penguins? They’re a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and Rust plays a huge role. But a contract extension has yet to be reached. This is Rust’s chance at generational wealth. It behooves him to maximize his income.

But the Penguins are tight against the NHL’s salary cap. Not everyone can stay. And Evgeni Malkin is in need of a new contract if he’s to remain in Steel City.

So if contract negotiations don’t progress between Rust’s camp and the Penguins, would general manager Ron Hextall consider moving him in advance of the NHL’s trade deadline of March 21, 2022?

Maybe. But I wouldn’t trade Rust.

Even if the Penguins are offered a first-round draft pick (and then some) in exchange for the talented winger, I don’t think it’s worth it. Rust is a core piece of the Pittsburgh offense. They’re still a good team without him in the lineup. But I think they are far less likely to raise the Stanley Cup at the end of the season without Rust.

If I’m Bryan Rust, I want to get paid what I deserve. But I also want to win. Leaving Pittsburgh would be a gamble in that regard.

If I’m Ron Hextall, I’m willing to roll the dice and keep Bryan Rust through the end of the season. If he walks next summer, so be it.

Either way, Rust is having another fantastic season. And his value continues to rise. Someone is going to pay him. I’m just not sure if that team’s colors are black and gold.