Projecting Moritz Seider’s New Red Wings Contract

Negotiation Between the Red Wings & Seider

When the two sides meet to discuss Seider’s contract extension, term and comparables stand out as possible points of contention. 

Focusing first on term, players coming off of ELCs either sign short-term bridge deals (one-to-three years) or long-term contracts (six-plus years). Both sides may be on the same page for which route to take, or they could have opposing viewpoints. 

There may not be alignment on comparables, either. Steve Yzerman and the Red Wings will likely curate their comparable list based on performance metrics. On the other side of the table, Claude Lemieux—yes, he’s Seider’s agent—could focus more on pedigree than performance to date. 

For example, Seider’s performance thus far lines up well with Mike Matheson, Mikhail Sergachev, and Travis Sanheim. His pedigree, though, is closer to that of Jake Sanderson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Owen Power.

Once the two sides share their viewpoints on these issues, build value in favor of their angle, and reach alignment, then the final piece—the salary—starts to come into perspective. 

If Yzerman and Lemieux aren’t able to align on these issues, they can walk away and try again later – toward the end of the 2023-24 season. There’s risk in doing so, though. 

Seider could either exceed or fall short of expectations, driving up or down future earnings. In addition, other contract extensions signed between now and then could have an impact. The two sides will need to consider these risks if thinking about walking away.

With all of these factors and variables in mind, let’s move onto Seider’s contract projection.

Red Wings/Seider Contract Projection

Last year, I put together a contract projection model. I used it to project Dylan Larkin’s contract extension, and will be using it again here—with updated data—for Seider.

My model likened Seider to Cam Fowler, Ivan Provorov, Jake Sanderson, and Jacob Trouba. The contract details for these four players are listed in the table below.

Player	Year Signed	Term	AAV	Cap Hit %
Cam Fowler	2017	8 Years	$6,500,000	8.67%
Ivan Provorov	2019	6 Years	$6,750,000	8.28%
Jacob Trouba	2019	7 Years	$8,000,000	9.82%
Jake Sanderson	2022	8 Years	$8,050,000	9.64%

Using the cap hit percentages, here’s what the four contracts would look like if they were signed with the 2024-25 season’s $87.5 million salary cap in place:

Based on this, it’s reasonable to expect an AAV between $7.2 and $8.6 million on a long-term deal. That said, the salary cap will increase by $4 million for the 2024-25 season, and salaries will likely increase along with it. To that point, an AAV range of $7.6 to $9.1 million is more likely.

With that being said, I have Seider and the Red Wings agreeing to an eight-year, $68 million contract ($8.5 million AAV). This deal would keep Seider in Hockeytown until he is 32 years old.

Final Word

In the past, Yzerman has signed key players coming off of ELCs to three-year deals to lock in cost savings. This was the case for Filip Hronek, Michael Rasmussen, and Filip Zadina, with Joe Veleno’s one-year deal last summer being the exception. The only eight-year contract he has doled out so far has been to Larkin – understandably. Seider may be next.

Lemieux and Seider don’t have a ton of leverage, apart from the latter being Detroit’s clear-cut best defenseman. That said, the Red Wings want to maintain a good working relationship with Seider, and that means treading carefully in these negotiations.

My projection would be a win-win for both parties. The Red Wings lock up their top defenseman for the next eight years, and Seider gets a handsome payday.