Senators Should Trade Mathieu Joseph While His Value is High

Yet Ottawa fans seem to have different reasons for sighing a breath of relief that the Quebec-born winger is still skating in a Senators sweater. Some of them love his performance this season and say the team needs him. Others still want him shipped out of Bytown, but like that, his trade value has gone up since his dismal 2022-23 season.

So should Joseph be traded or should he stay? Let’s take a look at the argument.

Joseph Has Resurrected His Career in Ottawa

As the Senators head off to Stockholm to play the Detroit Red Wings and Minnesota Wild on Nov. 16 and 18 respectively, Joseph has racked up 12 points in 13 games including four goals at even strength (EV). That’s one more goal than he scored all last season and none of those were scored at EV – supposedly one of his strengths. He’s now just six points shy of the 18 points he notched last season over the course of 56 games. 

His play has earned him a spot in Ottawa’s top six playing on the second line alongside Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle. With a plus/minus of plus-7, ranking him second on the team, he is the Senators’ number three point-getter – just behind Vladimir Tarasenko who earns over $2 million more than Joseph. All of this is reflected in his rising average time on the ice which so far this season stands at 16:42 – just eight seconds short of the 16:50 he recorded in his first year in Ottawa in 2021-22.

This season Joseph has electrified the faithful at Canadian Tire Centre (CTC) with his blazing speed and knack for playmaking. Always a scoring threat on the penalty kill, his ability to steal pucks and create offence while shorthanded is a nightmare for opponents. 

Joseph has returned to the form Ottawa fans were excited about when he came to town at the 2022 Trade Deadline. That spring, he wowed fans and management alike with 12 points in 11 games leading then-general manager (GM) Pierre Dorion to offer him a four-year contract featuring an average annual value (AAV) of $2.95 million.

Is Mathieu Joseph the Real Deal for the Senators in 2022-23?

His success at the end of the 2021-22 season in Bytown, shortened as it was by an upper-body injury, was due in part to an injury-depleted lineup that gave him top-six minutes with better players. In fact, many say his dismal performance last year was because he wasn’t playing on a line centered by Josh Norris as he had previously. Two separate injuries that kept Joseph out for a total of seven weeks last season also helped scuttle his point production.

In the four seasons in which he played with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Joseph was never a top-six player. While he notched 26 points in the 70 games that he played in Tampa during his rookie campaign in 2018-19, he bounced in and out of the lineup over the next few seasons due to inconsistencies in his play. His ice time and points production dropped off and he became a trade chip.  

While applauded this season for his sizzling points production at almost one per game, he’s never demonstrated at any point in his career that he’s much more than a 25-point-per-season player. At an AAV of $2.95 million, he should be generating 40 per season to earn his salt.

It’s doubtful that he’ll keep producing at his current rate especially since the intensity of play in the NHL will only ramp up as we approach American Thanksgiving and Christmas. Not only that but once the injured Pinto, Ridly Greig and Mark Kastelic return to the lineup, all bets are off on Joseph continuing to get top-six minutes. Also, with both Pinto and Norris in the lineup, Joseph’s importance as a penalty killer is lessened.

Joseph’s contract runs until the end of the 2025-26 season. It may not age well if his middling performance over the entire length of his career is any guide.

Mathieu Joseph as a Senators’ Trade Chip

Heading into training camp in September, Joseph would have been voted most likely to be a salary dump. In fact, some hockey gurus said Ottawa would need to include a pick or prospect to move him.

Hockey Night in Canada’s Elliotte Friedman was one of them saying in September that while the Philadelphia Flyers were interested in Joseph, Ottawa would most likely have had to include a top prospect or the first-round draft pick they acquired in the Alex DeBrincat trade with the Detroit Red Wings to get the deal done. Friedman even speculated that the Senators might have to put Joseph on waivers and keep their fingers crossed that somebody picked him up for nothing – just to get his salary off Ottawa’s books.

Few are talking like that anymore. In fact, you have to wonder whether the Flyers and others are kicking themselves now for not grabbing Joseph when Dorion was shopping him around.

That Joseph is now playing on the second line may be an attempt to showcase him for a trade down the line. Given his play so far this season, he has succeeded in raising his trade value and Ottawa may not have to include a good pick or prospect to sell him.

Now’s the Time for Senators to Trade Joseph

Many observers say the Senators are in need of a solid right-shot defenceman, yet can’t get one since they don’t have any cap space left. They say acting GM Steve Staios should package up Joseph and Erik Brannstrom and go out and get one.

Joseph still has youth and energy on his side and he’ll never have more value than he does now as trade bait. Now’s the time to cash in on him and acquire the depth they need on the blue line. Like any investment, it’s best to sell high.