The Art Ross Trophy Race: Who’s (Actually) Been the NHL’s Best Scorer?

Breakdown: Whether it’s team need, his own preference, or superhuman fitness, MacKinnon has played a lot. Aside from linemate Mikko Rantanen, MacKinnon’s average ice time (22:58) is the most by a forward in 12 years. Playing that many minutes and sustaining such a high level of play is inspiring, but it also means MacKinnon has scored less efficiently.

Edge: Kucherov and McDavid. They’ve kept up despite seeing 6% less ice time per night than MacKinnon. Both McDavid (two games missed) and Kucherov (one) have not played the full schedule.

#2. Goals vs. Assists

While points dominate box scores, scoring races, scouting reports, and hockey pools, let’s be honest… the point as a concept stinks. Goals being worth the same as primary assists, let alone secondary assists, is an archaic count from more than a century ago. While points are a charming feature of the sport, there are few left that value goals and assists equally.

Yes, we can cherry pick certain assists as more influential than tap-in goals or accidental deflections. But equally rewarding the goal scorer and someone that touched the puck semi-recently — even after a series of passes or shot attempts — doesn’t reflect impact on a scoring play.

Basketball only awards assists directly leading to a bucket, and secondary assists are so inconsequential they are rarely mentioned, labelled “hockey assists.” Even the NHL acknowledges the disparity in value, awarding the Art Ross to the player with more goals in the event of a tie.

Breakdown: When it comes to primary points, Kucherov leads a close race. But while McDavid is putting up scorching assist totals this year, he’s tied for 34th in goals with Blake Coleman and Trevor Moore. And goals, of course, are hockey’s currency. MacKinnon leads McDavid by a whopping 19 goals and Kucherov by five.

Edge: Goal count is a major boost to MacKinnon and Kucherov. What’s better than a 110-assist, 145-point performance? An 85-assist, 145-point performance.

#3. Empty Net

Incredibly, after six months of cat-and-mouse, hot takes, and four-point nights, there is a very good chance that the scoring title will be decided by… empty net points.

Breakdown: Is being an ’empty net merchant’ now a thing? Kucherov set the NHL season record last night with his 13th empty net point. While I’m not suggesting these points have no value, it’s hard to argue an assist with four seconds left into an empty cage of a 7-4 win screams impact scorer. Empty net points are some combination of coaching deployment, number of close leads a team finds themselves in, and on some level, self-interest.

Edge: Clear bump to McDavid (just 5 empty net points) and MacKinnon (8) over Kucherov, earning more of their points by outfoxing an actual NHL goalie.

#4. Special Teams

Power play points are often dismissed as empty calorie points. Yes, they count all the same on the scoreboard and in the scoring race. But points at even-strength — the sport’s default state — are more difficult to earn. At even strength, a player doesn’t have the luxury of slinging pucks around with their four best teammates against an outnumbered opponent.

Breakdown: In his iconic 64-goal, 153-point season last year, McDavid piled points on a historically great power play. His 71 points with the man advantage were the fifth-most in NHL history. While our Big Three are 1-2-3 in power play points this year, it hasn’t separated their seasons.

Edge: Nothing to see here. While this could change in the final two weeks, it’s been balanced scoring at even strength.

#5. Team Factors

A player’s team situation offers context on the impact of their scoring feats. Here are the two forwards our superstar trio spends the most time on the ice with at even strength:

• Kucherov: Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel
• MacKinnon: Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin
• McDavid: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  • McDavid also plays 40% of his even-strength minutes with Leon Draisaitl
    

Breakdown: When it comes to factoring in on his team’s goals (50%) and point lead on his nearest teammates (a remarkable +48), Kucherov slays. But for all that offence created, the Lightning barely win Kucherov’s minutes — they’ve scored just four more goals than they’ve allowed at 5-on-5. MacKinnon and McDavid each have a 61% goal share, producing offence without sacrificing goals against. When we look at nearest teammates, it’s McDavid that’s least dominant. His 27-point team lead is third and he trails Hyman by 23 goals (and Draisaitl by 10).

Edge: You’ll see what you want to see out of the metrics above — it’s human nature. And it’s what fuels debates, making splitting hairs among superstars fun. Most notable in my eyes: Kucherov’s goal share (51%) is light and McDavid’s distant third-place in team goal count.

Who’s Been the Best Scorer?

Here’s a handy visual summarizing the Art Ross race.

The analysis shows… there is not a lot separating the three as scorers this season.

In a tight race with two weeks ago, there’s a slight edge to MacKinnon — he has no fatal flaw in his point total. He plays more minutes, but in a grueling season alternating to and from altitude, that may be a badge of honor given his consistency. His goal count stands out — arguably the most important factor in a tight points battle. Colorado has greatly outscored opponents at 5-on-5 while he’s earning these points. And MacKinnon comfortably leads a talented franchise in goals and assists.

There’s a compelling case for Kucherov, his team perhaps most reliant on his dynamic offensive contributions. But if he wins the Art Ross, it’s likely to be from record-setting empty-net points. McDavid’s case for best-scoring season leans toward his stunning assist count. But it’s difficult to look past his relatively measly goal count this year.

It’s critically important that the scoring title alone not influence the Hart Trophy vote, though. The points race is fun, but after six months of action we can’t distinguish between four all-world talents (hello, Auston Matthews) based on whether someone snags one more empty-net assist in Game #82.

A goal is a point.

A primary assist is a point.

A secondary assist is a point.

But pretending they are all created equal is, well, really missing the point.

Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com, NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick