The next wave of future Maple Leafs is beginning to take shape

Competitive windows come and go in the NHL. Bad teams reload with premium draft picks and hope those players eventually lead the way to the top of the mountain. Key pieces of winning teams start to age, their abilities inevitably decline, and the descent to restarting the cycle begins. The teams that are able to keep those competitive windows open the longest do so with a combination of shrewd personnel decisions and, perhaps more importantly, strong drafting and development.

Following several years of being a punching bag for the rest of the league, the Leafs shifted gears in their competitive cycle with the arrival of promising youngsters like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Over time, those players have grown into superstars and made the Leafs into a perennial contender.

But that star-studded core that also includes captain John Tavares and long-time Leaf Morgan Rielly has been supplemented mostly through trades and free agency over the years, leading to a rotating cast of complementary players rounding out the lineup. That’s a tough way to build a team and sustain success from year to year.

There are mitigating factors at play, of course. Young players take time to develop, and the Leafs haven’t had many premium picks in recent years, as they’ve routinely finished near the top of the standings while shipping out valuable draft capital in the pursuit of playoff success. Mitigating factors aside, the fact remains that the Leafs have failed to integrate cheap, young talent into their lineup and changing that will be crucial to sustaining success and ensuring Toronto holds onto “contender” status.

Since John Tavares signed with the Leafs in the summer of 2018, the Leafs have only drafted three players who have played NHL games for them: Nick Robertson, Nick Abruzzese, and Matthew Knies. Those three have combined to play just 45 regular season games to this point, but Knies and Robertson appear primed to bolster Toronto’s roster this season, representing the first wave in what the Leafs hope will be a steady pipeline of homegrown contributors.

At this stage, Knies looks like a lock for the opening night roster and figures to start out in a prominent role alongside Tavares. He shouldn’t be expected to light up the scoreboard as a rookie, but he has already proven capable of contributing at the NHL level and should be a solid source of secondary scoring as he continues to develop.

Things are a bit murkier for Robertson, given the amount of time he has missed due to injuries, the Leafs’ salary cap crunch limiting their roster flexibility, and the emergence of Noah Gregor, who is well on his way to parlaying a PTO into a roster spot.

The most likely, and perhaps best, thing for Robertson might be to start the season playing big minutes for the Marlies, readying himself for when the injury bug inevitably bites the big club. Still just 22 years old, staying healthy and getting consistent game reps are the biggest things for Robertson, but he will factor into the Leafs’ lineup at some point this season, and no one should be shocked if he takes his opportunity and runs with it.

Knies and Robertson might be the ones knocking on the door and ready to contribute right now, but there is more help on the way.

2022 second-round pick Fraser Minten and the 28th overall pick from this past summer’s draft, Easton Cowan, have both been turning heads at training camp and through the early part of the preseason. They’re ticketed to return to their respective junior clubs for the regular season, but their strong play has left a lasting impression and convinced the Leafs to extend their stay at camp.

Cowan started strong at the Traverse City Prospects Tournament, where he was consistently the best Leaf on the ice, and has carried that momentum into his first NHL training camp, continuously “stacking up good days,” in the words of head coach Sheldon Keefe. In his first taste of NHL preseason action, Cowan was once again the best Leaf on the ice, and Keefe had to restrain himself from playing the 18-year-old too much. He finished with a goal and an assist while firing four shots on goal in almost 17 minutes of ice time, including a shift that saw him draw a penalty in the final minute of regulation. He even earned a look in overtime, jumping over the boards for Matthews with the game on the line.

Keefe turned to the youngster once again in Wednesday’s preseason tilt against Buffalo, and while it was a quieter outing for him, he still managed a primary assist on a late powerplay goal off the stick of Conor Timmins. More importantly, Cowan continued to look like he belonged.

He processes the game at an impressive rate for such a young player, and his speed allows him to capitalize on the strong reads he makes on both sides of the puck. With the puck on his stick, he attacks open space and gets into the dirty areas around the net. He has also shown an ability to play a give-and-go game at a high pace, leaving defenders with little time to react. Cowan is tenacious in puck pursuit and hasn’t looked out of place against bigger, more physically mature opponents either. He has shown a willingness to engage physically, even landing a big hit on the forecheck against Buffalo, but he also knows when to back off and take away passing options in the middle of the ice.

Cowan has impressed in a big way and taken great strides towards shedding the “reach” label already, but the reality is that he still requires plenty of development at the junior level in order to reach his full potential. It will be another year or two before he is a legitimate candidate to make the Leafs’ roster, but the encouraging thing is that he has already shown plenty of reasons to believe he will get there.

Minten hasn’t popped quite the way that Cowan has, but he has been impressive in his own right. Like Cowan, he has built off of a strong showing in Traverse City and continued to earn Keefe’s praise through the early days of training camp.