Top five high-risk, high-reward players in 2023 NHL Draft

Sometimes, overlooking flaws in a player’s game can pay off big-time.

Each draft season, there’s always a handful of prospects who have great games, but something else brings them down a few pegs. Whether it be one significant flaw or other factors, it happens all the time. If you’re willing to look past those issues and take a chance on a player and properly develop them, it could work out brilliantly. Or not.

It doesn’t matter how often scouts watch a prospect over a season. You still don’t know what’s going to happen next. It’s all just projection, trying to visualize an idolized future for every single teenager who is still in the process of growing as a player and a person.

Today, we’re taking a look at five high-risk, high-reward players for the 2023 NHL Draft. Goaltenders are excluded for the sole fact that, well, it’s the riskiest position to draft at to start with. So, here are five you need to know:

Matvei Michkov, RW (HK Sochi, KHL)

This only really applies to the high-end of the draft. Many scouts think Michkov could be the second-best prospect in the draft behind Connor Bedard. But unlike Bedard or Adam Fantilli, teams will need to wait for Michkov. Three years isn’t too long for many prospects, especially those in major junior who might need another two years before getting a sniff in the AHL. But for an elite talent like Michkov, it feels different. With everything going on in Russia, more than a few teams have raised concerns about whether he’d actually come over once his tenure with SKA St. Petersburg comes to a close. 

He managed to rack up 20 points in 27 games to finish fourth in team scoring. Six of the team’s nine wins came with Michkov in the lineup, and his 0.74 points per game during his time with Sochi is the best by a U-19 in league history — beating out Evgeny Kuznetsov, Eeli Tolvanen, Vladimir Tarasenko, Kirill Kaprizov and Artemi Panarin, among others. If I’m a GM and he’s available, and I have time on my side, I’m taking him. It’s only risky if you’re a GM under pressure near the top of the draft class (ahem, Columbus), but you just never know, right?

Andrew Cristall, LW (Kewlona, WHL)

Cristall would have easily blown past the 100-point mark had he not suffered a lower-body injury. From a skill perspective, Cristall has everything going for him. His skating can be a bit of a disaster at points, and he can float around defensively. In a vacuum, there’s a lot to like. When he has the puck on his stick, though, he’s dangerous. Surround him with quality linemates and you should be fine. I believe in Cristall big-time.

Lukas Dragicevic, D (Tri-City, WHL)

There isn’t a better offensive defenseman in the draft. Not even close. You don’t typically see defensemen hit the 75-point barrier — heck, not many forwards do, either. It was a remarkable season for the score-first, worry-later defender with one of the best shots from the point. He’s an incredible breakout defenseman — maybe one of the best in years. But poor acceleration and absolutely abysmal defensive coverage is where things fall apart. For whatever reason, we’re seeing a trend of these young, talented defenders who can’t play in their own zone. 

Dragicevic only switched to the blueline a few years ago, so he’s still trying to figure that out. If he can figure out how to be significantly more effective in his own zone, he’ll be fine, because it’s far from pro-ready right now. But from an offensive standpoint, he has all the skill needed.

Luca Cagnoni, D (Portland, WHL)

Cagnoni was one of the best offensive defenders in the WHL this year. Cagnoni — who wasn’t even drafted to major junior — put up 17 goals and 64 points for an exciting Portland squad. He’s a volume shooter who loves to have the puck on his stick and is as dangerous as they come when in control. There are few better transitional defensemen in this draft class. The issue? Actually playing defense. He definitely improved his own-zone play later in the year, but there’s still ways to go. If Cagnoni can get that cleaned up, he could be one of the best steals among defensemen.

Cameron Allen, D (Guelph, OHL)

After being projected to go early in the draft, Allen wasn’t able to build upon a successful rookie campaign with Guelph, with many of his defensive inconsistencies getting exposed this season. The good news: He still played close to 30 minutes a night often and was capable of some great evenings. He is still confident enough to get creative with the puck, which allowed him to succeed as a rookie. But at the U-18s, and throughout the early parts of the season, he looked completely lost. In two weeks in Switzerland, it was like he erased all goodwill he gained on the ice with some terrible decision-making mistakes. 

Luckily, him falling outside the top 70 could end up making him an incredible value pick, and one scouts aren’t ready to write-off. If he can relax and play the more calm, cool and collected game that made him dominant as a Draft+1 year, he’ll be able to bounce back. Right now? It’s hard to get a true read.