Will Ilya Samsonov finally turn things around with Toronto Maple Leafs?

There’s no sugarcoating it: Ilya Samsonov’s season has been an absolute disaster. So much so that you had to wonder if he’d ever play an NHL game again after going on waivers in December.

Take your pick: the blown leads, allowing five goals in a victory, the terrible goals from brutal angles or the losses to lesser teams. Samsonov still has more wins than regulation losses, but it’s those lost points against teams like Columbus, Chicago and Buffalo that were unacceptable.

Not all of it was his fault. Toronto’s defense has failed them way too often this season, especially during numerous third-period collapses in recent weeks. But too much of it WAS his fault, and putting him on waivers and letting him reset became necessary. And it came at a brutal time with Joseph Woll’s injury, too. Fortunately, Martin Jones has looked solid to lessen the blow, but getting consistently solid goaltending has been difficult.

There’s no pressure like being an NHL goaltender. All it takes is a single mistake in 60 minutes to ruin everything. When the bad goals start to pile up, it gets even worse. So often last year, we saw a young goaltender smiling more than he ever had in his pro career, shining in the spotlight in the most demanding market in the sport.

But the twinkle quickly began to fade for the 26-year-old. Samsonov went from arguing his worth to an arbitrator to seeing his play fall off a cliff.

Samsonov no longer looked like an NHL goaltender. Something had to change, and quick.

Samsonov made 16 saves in a 3-1 win over the Seattle Kraken on Sunday. It wasn’t much, but it was his first win in 43 days. It had to feel exceptionally good after playing well against Detroit in his first game back on Jan. 14, only to see things fall apart again with – you guessed it – another blown lead.

It was a valuable two points for a Leafs team amid a slump. But more importantly, it was a significant mental victory for someone who desperately needed it.

On the one hand, Samsonov’s 5-on-5 save percentage of .882 and goals saved above average of minus-2.22 in his last two starts are still among the worst in the league over the past week. It’s a small sample size, and not great by any means, but getting back there and contending for wins has to feel good for Samsonov. The smile was back.

Ask any goaltender at any level how vital self-confidence is. It can be difficult to claw back when it’s gone, especially in a market like Toronto. But maybe the mental reset, plus two decent showings (albeit with just 40 shots against over two games), could be enough to get Samsonov on the right track again.

Sometimes, these smaller victories can mean so much – especially in a volatile position like goaltending.

It’s not clear how the Leafs will handle Samsonov’s playing time in the short-term. They play just two games – a home-and-home against Winnipeg on Wednesday and Saturday – before taking a week off leading into the NHL All-Star Game. Winnipeg is one of the best teams in the NHL, so if Samsonov could start one of them and pull off the win, that would be massive for his confidence. It’s one thing to beat a team on the outside looking in like Seattle – it’s another to stonewall a red-hot Jets lineup.

It’s hard to build momentum in a situation like this, especially for someone with just two games of actual hockey action in the calendar year. But the Leafs also can’t afford to experiment if they feel like Martin Jones gives them the best chance to win the next two games.

Every point matters, especially amid Toronto’s recent 5-4-1 run. And, unfortunately, Samsonov cost them too many over the first two months of the season. They’re in a playoff spot for now, but they’re just sitting one point above Detroit and Tampa Bay in the two Eastern Conference Wildcard spots.

Samsonov called his early season play the “hardest” of his life. Taking time off with Toronto Marlies goalie coach Hannu Toivonen allowed him to re-focus and get away from the stressful environment, and he feels like it helped him mentally. Samsonov told reporters Sunday he’s looking to stay positive and keep moving forward, and it’s up to him to prove he can be relied upon once again.

It’ll be better for everyone if he can be. He’s a UFA this summer, so he needs to prove he can be the high-caliber option many know he’s capable of.