Will Morgan Rielly’s suspension be the Maple Leafs’ rallying point or downfall?

How will we look back on Feb. 10, 2024?

Maybe it’ll be the moment that reignited the Battle of Ontario. Given the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators have rarely been competitive at the same time since they last met in the playoffs in 2004, the rivalry has felt limp for the past two decades. But perhaps Ridly Greig changed that when he sealed a Sens victory by hammering a slapshot into an empty net last Saturday night. We won’t know for sure until the teams meet again, which almost certainly won’t happen until next season.

It’s more likely we remember Feb. 10 as the moment that changed the Leafs’ 2023-24 season, for better or worse. How we look back on it is more in their control than they might want to believe.

Greig unleashed that clapper on Saturday. Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly responded with a cross-check to the head. The stick didn’t ride up. It was already up. The attack happened when the play was already blown dead by the goal. It was a textbook non-hockey play, the Department of Player Safety’s No. 1 bugaboo, and the narrative – taking exception to your team being embarrassed – only solidified the predatory nature of the play. Rielly was caught between a rock and a hard place, sure, as not responding would’ve had just as many fans and pundits yelling from just as many soapboxes. But there was no hiding from what he did. That’s why the DOPS slapped him with a five-game suspension following a hearing on Tuesday. No injury to Greig? No prior history of supplemental discipline for Rielly? Be glad, Leafs fans. Both of those things would’ve made the ban even longer than it was. They were factored into George Parros’ decision. Rielly got off relatively clean; the five-game suspension is small enough that the NHL Players’ Association can appeal directly to commissioner Gary Bettman without involving a third-party arbitrator.

So the Leafs won’t have their No. 1 defenseman until Feb. 22. How they handle his absence, across every part of the organization, could set the tone for the rest their 2023-24 season.

Will they point fingers? During Rielly’s hearing, did the Leafs give in to the mentality of Twitter Leaf Nation warriors, Zapruder filiming as many comparable clips they can find, despite the fact the context of each is different? When GM Brad Treliving addresses the media Wednesday, will he echo coach Sheldon Keefe’s hinting at unfavorable treatment of his team by the DOPS despite the fact the evidence of that is circumstantial at the absolute best?

Your opponents sure hope so, Leafs. They want you distracted. They want you looking for a scapegoat during an underwhelming season in which the team has regressed due to subpar defensive play and depth-scoring woes. That’s the mentality of a team destined to lose. If the Leafs get bogged down in self pity and chase down Bettman with appeals, they may wind up sinking. You pre-establish an excuse to fail and, guess what? You will.

That’s one way to go. The other is to use the moment as a rallying cry and put the punishment behind them. And that’s exactly what the Leafs did Tuesday night, when, minus Rielly, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and six regulars in total, they delivered one of their most spirited wins of the season, taking down the St. Louis Blues, with role player Bobby McMann delivering his first career hat trick.

On the blueline, maybe the increased responsibility will spark T.J. Brodie, who hasn’t looked like the same shutdown player this season. His 23:41 of ice time Tuesday marked his second-highest total since November. Maybe Timothy Liljegren finally gets into a rhythm on that temporary top pair and finds the confidence that seems to elude him continuously. Simon Benoit’s 20:27 was his second-highest mark as a Leaf. Perhaps Jake McCabe, who has shown surprising flashes of offense to complement his rugged game, flourishes as the Leafs try him out there on the top power play unit. If the Leafs are to stay afloat as currently constructed, it will have to mean this ragtag D-corps steps up without its most important piece. That won’t be an easy task given Rielly has been their best blueliner at both ends of the ice. Typically in his career, he’s profiled as an offense-only player, but he’s made massive strides in his own zone this season.

McCabe’s post-game comments Tuesday were a great omen. For one, he vowed not to “b---- and complain” about the Rielly ban. Secondly, when asked if he was frustrated about his bloodied face, he told one reporter he wouldn’t take the bait and complain about the officiating.

“I’m just going to keep putting a smile on my face and competing,” McCabe said.

That’s the mentality Toronto needs: look forward, not backward, and avoid pointing fingers.

A third path for the Leafs to take? If not a rallying cry for the players, a rallying cry for the front office and Treliving. He’s been rumored to have interest in what feels like half the defensemen in the NHL this season: his former Calgary Flames troops in Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin and the already-traded Nikita Zadorov; the Philadelphia Flyers’ Sean Walker; the St. Louis Blues’ Colton Parayko; the Columbus Blue Jackets’ Andrew Peeke; and so on.

Treliving is known for making blockbusters…in the offseason. He hasn’t typically been an aggressive in-season mover. Trade Deadline Season isn’t his jam. The exception came in 2021-22 when he landed Tyler Toffoli and Calle Jarnkrok for the Flames’ playoff run. But maybe Rielly’s absence creates some urgency. Even with him, the Leafs had slipped year over year from 10^th to 24^th in expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5. One inspiring win over a middling Blues team doesn’t change the team’s outlook.

The Trade Deadline is 23 days away. If Treliving believes this team is capable of making a run: go get your guys. Like, right now. While the games in hand on most of their competition help, the Leafs are four points away from sitting outside a playoff spot. Rielly’s absence threatens to drop them down into the bubble.

So where do the Leafs and their fans go from here? It’s a matter of how much control they believe they have.

Path No. 1 is to lament what “has happened to them” and set themselves up for defeat.

Path No. 2 is to look from within and use the suspension as an opportunity for the rest of their defensemen to pick up Rielly’s slack, build their confidence and develop better habits. Tuesday night was an emphatic step in that direction.

Path No. 3: carpe diem, baby. Don’t get mad, get even, by snatching one or two of the most coveted defenseman off the trade market.

Whatever happens between now and March 8, it will at least be interesting. It always is when it comes to the Blue and White.